As if the threat of the coronavirus wasn't enough to cause you some anxiety - perhaps unless you are young and healthy - the manifest failure of this government to suppress the virus makes things much worse. In far east countries like Vietnam, the death toll is low (see below) and the economy is functioning well, and people accept the need to wear masks. In the UK the story is very different.
If you want to protect people and the economy you have to suppress the virus. This is what they have done successfully in the far east. That needs an effective test and trace system run by public health. The government's half-arsed three-tiered local lockdown is not the answer and will inflict terrible harm. It limits economic activity but doesn't take the necessary steps to control the virus. It is the worst of both worlds.
It's also necessary to quash the myth of herd immunity. The coronavirus is a flu-type virus. Immunity is short-lived. See this quote from The Lancet:
"The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable.This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence."
It's also important to note that while the death rate is low and largely confined to the very elderly even a 1% death rate would be catastrophic for populations around the world. At 1% the number of deaths would be higher than the Spanish flu. For example
1% of UK population: 666,000
1% of US population: 3.28 million
1% of world population: 78.1 million
Some countries have successfully suppressed the virus. The combined population of Thailand and Vietnam is roughly three times that of the UK at 170 million. The death toll is 94. These counties are both 'poorer' than the UK. Neither has the kind of healthcare we have here.
We need a circuit breaker with schools and universities closed for several weeks as recommended by SAGE. Students need to be able to return home if they want to with rent rebates. This needs to be accompanied by a proper furlough scheme to keep workers in jobs and businesses afloat, otherwise it could be a very bleak winter with no end in sight.
