Could the war in Ukraine be the end for Putin?

How well is Putin's war in Ukraine going and what is he really going to gain from it? Several days into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after Russia attacked on 24 February, it's already clear that governments and their peoples all over the world oppose the war that Putin has unleashed, as do many of the Russian people. Thousands of Russians have bravely taken to the streets, something that is not easy in a country that cracks down severely on any opposition to the government (ed: something that could never happen here, of course). 

There have been many reports of events happening in Ukraine and some are difficult to verify but it's clear the invasion is not going as well as Putin would have wanted. Early reports suggested that 170,000 to 190,000 Russian troops were poised on the borders to enter Ukraine, and it's always been clear the Russians have the advantage in troops, tanks, and firepower. But the Russian Army has failed, so far, to sweep aside Ukrainian resistance and this is not the walkover Putin would have wanted.

It has been reported that some Russian soldiers are young conscripts who thought they were on manoeuvres. Other reports mention Russian tanks breaking down and running out of fuel. It has been said that Russian soldiers have asked Ukrainians for food. So maybe all is not well in Putin's army. Many Russian soldiers may be reluctant combatants not really up for the fight. Although the Financial Times report that the commander spearheading the assault on Kyiv is Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the province of Chechnya who commands some of Russia’s most feared units and who has been calling for stronger tactics to defeat the resistance.

But even if the Russians take Kyiv in the next few days what then? It's pretty clear the conflict won't be over. There will continue to be resistance from the Ukrainian people and almost certainly guerilla warfare will continue. Weapons to help the resistance will be smuggled into Ukraine from other European countries. Indeed, for a ragtag army conscripted from young people trying to flee the city, according to reports, they appear to be both well organised and well resourced. Putin could well end up with a bloody, protracted conflict on his hands and it is hard to see how this could do him any favours at home. Winning a war can make strong men very popular, but losing, or getting bogged down in years of conflict, can be fatal for them.

In the longer term, assuming he gets the 'victory' he wants what can Putin do? He could install a puppet government but that would be resisted by Ukrainian citizens and ostracised by the global community. It's hard to see what he could gain from that, and the chances are that the longer Russian troops have to remain in a country where they will be under attack the more unpopular he will become at home. Putin's war could also lead to the very opposite of what he wants - an expansion of NATO. It's possible that neutral countries like Sweden and Finland could join NATO because of the perceived Russian threat.

It's already beginning to look like this could be Putin's 'Afghanistan' and it's hard to see how he could sustain his 'dictatorship' through such a scenario. The war in Ukraine could be the beginning of the end for him. It's becoming hard to see what he has to gain from this war but easy to see what he has to lose. That said, he only has to fight Ukraine to a standstill in order to create the buffer zone between Russia and NATO that is quite possibly his intention.

*This article was published in Critical Mass Magazine on 28 February 2022

Bankers quaff champagne while the poor scramble for food

Welcome to Tory Britain. A dozen years after the Tories returned to power in 2010 we have a cost of living crisis, with millions struggling to pay rent, buy food, and heat their homes. At the same time, we have a 'run on champagne' as bankers celebrate the biggest bonuses since the financial crash. The Guardian reports that:

"This week British bankers will start collecting the biggest bonuses since before the 2008 global financial crisis as their employers fight an “increasingly intense war for talent”.

As most Britons face the biggest squeeze on their incomes since at least 1990, already very highly paid bankers are celebrating “particularly obscene” bonuses in the City’s pubs and wine bars".

And this comes at a time that the governor of the Bank of England has been calling on workers to exercise wage restraint at a time when inflation could go as high as 8%, and when Rishi Sunak has just handed £1 billion to banks in a tax break which is intended to keep them 'competitive'.

The relentless attack on the living standards of ordinary Britons continues whilst the bankers, corporations, and the super-rich continue to increase their wealth. This is a trend that began in the 1980s with Margaret Thatcher's governments and has continued ever since - with no end in sight. 

So what can we do? We can no longer expect much in the way of support from the state.  Voting for Labour and the other main parties isn't going to make much difference, and although we must continue to support, locally and nationally, parties and candidates who we believe can reverse this trend, we are increasingly going to have to support ourselves in local communities through solidarity and mutual aid. 

This is happening across the UK in many communities where people are working together to establish community hubs, growing local food, street kitchens, local energy companies, and cooperatives. 

In the longer term, we need to build this mutual aid network into a powerful grassroots movement nationally. Get involved if you can.

The energy crisis is just the tip of the #Tory dystopian iceberg

Well, what a day! First, we learned that energy bills are set to rise by 54% - that's about a £700 rise for the typical household to about £2000 p.a. In case you haven't guessed that's a record by the way. Then we had the government's response from Rishi Sunak, he's giving us £350 off our bills this year, £200 as a loan, and £150 off council tax which will not have to be repaid. 

I've no doubt that some will welcome this but it's a sticking plaster on a gaping wound, and what makes it worse is that it comes at a time when Shell announces a whopping profit of £19.3 billion, up from £4.8 billion. Share prices in energy companies have also risen by 70%.

The reality is that Sunak's £350 'handout' will be more than cancelled out by the rise in national insurance, and to add to the pain the Bank of England has announced an interest rate rise at a time they are predicting that inflation will rise to 7.4% by April. If you're lucky enough to have a mortgage you will see a rise which will also help to wipe out Sunak's package. Meanwhile in France the energy company has been forced to take the hit.

All of this comes at a time when the government has announced that it has written off £8.7 billion which was spent on dud PPE in the early part of the covid crisis and £4.3 billion in fraudulent covid loans. We already have over 14 million families living in poverty and this appalling situation can only get worse. 

The problem is that there is no light at the end of the tunnel. The appropriate response to the ongoing energy crisis, poverty crisis and the climate crisis needs to be a green new deal containing a massive programme of home insulation and expansion of renewables. Such a programme could create tens of thousands of meaningful and decently paid jobs which would help with the government's so-called levelling up programme which will make no difference to poorer communities. We also need to see public ownership of utilities,  proper taxation of banks, corporations, and the 1%, and a universal basic income*.

There's nothing new here. I've been saying this on my blog for over a decade but as long as we are saddled with a 'free market' neoliberal government none of this is going to happen - not unless the government's hand can be forced electorally and by protest or strike action. Tory and Labour governments are working for the banks and corporations - not for the people. We need radical change and we are going to have to fight for it if we are going to free ourselves from an even more dystopian future.

* Guy Standing has written about this and I recommend you read his book Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now.