Why Labour isn't 20 points ahead

When Jeremy Corbyn was LOTO we were told by centrists and much of the media that if only Labour had a 'moderate' leader the Party would be 20 points ahead in the polls. Now that Corbyn has been replaced by Keir Starmer this hasn't happened. In fact, despite the utter incompetence and corruption of Boris Johnson's Conservative government, the Tories have been ahead in the polls for most of 2020. Only in recent days after the Christmas covid cock up has Labour taken a small lead. Why is this? This Twitter thread by @cakeylaura about her father night help to explain (I've not included all the tweets in the thread):

"He's got some significant health issues and so does his partner. They both rely on the NHS. He's very worried about climate change. In every respect he ought to be a slam dunk Labour voter. But instead he thinks Boris Johnson is great and voted Tory at the last election. Why"

Because he's afraid of change. And the world is changing fast. Suddenly he's being accused of racism for the same jokes he used to tell loudly and unchallenged down the pub (accurately btw, he is racist, although of course he doesn't think so).

And that's the essential heart of it. To him, the Tories love Britain and want it to thrive. They will put Europe in its place, will play Rule Britannia, will give him something to be proud of. Labour? Labour will just accelerate Britain's decline into namby pamby wokeism."

Of course, people like @cakeylaura's father didn't get these views overnight. The community they grew up in (including family) will have had a large influence as will the mainstream media which, through newspapers like the Sun and Daily Mail, has been bigging up Britain and slagging off the EU for decades, stoking the fires of English nationalism.

The key question is - how do we change the opinions of people who share his views in order to promote racial harmony and progressive change? Why do some people prefer conspiracy theories promoted by politicians like Trump to facts presented by 'experts'? This Guardian article by Lois Beckett gives us some important clues. 

Firstly, people operate emotionally not rationally. They won't be swayed by facts. Experts telling us the truth won't cut it. Secondly, the narrative is important. Tell a story that is consistent and promotes the right values and policy solutions. For decades the right has had a consistent narrative about free markets, tax burdens, and red tape. Repeat this often enough and it seeps into people's consciousness. Where is the left's alternative to this? There isn't one but I've suggested one in this post.

So how do we change people's minds? According to the Guardian article:

"While it is possible to engage with people who believe deeply in false narratives, and sometimes change their minds, that work is most successful on an individual basis, with people who know each other well, experts said.

It’s helpful to understand someone’s fundamental framework for viewing the world, including whom they view as the “good guys” and the “bad guys”, in order to understand what kind of additional information might sway them, Phillips said."

We can't change the minds of millions through personal actions but we can change the narrative and we can make much more use of effective frames such as "for the many" instead of banging on about our good policies. Because most people don't vote for policies they vote with their hearts, not their head.  

The left has a lot of work to do. People on the left and right talk disparagingly about 'identity politics' but the truth is, for most people, like @cakeylaura's father, their politics are bound up completely with their identity. It's time we understood that. 

In the shorter term, the question is - will the approach adopted by Starmer's Labour be able to appeal to red wall Labour Tories and will Labour be able to square the circle of Brexit-loving English nationalism and progressive policies? I'm not holding my breath waiting for that poll lead.